International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management

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Vol. 12 No. 1 (2021)
Original Research Article

Predicting Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: An Exhaustive Parametric Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques

Syed Emad Azhar Ali
Department of Management & Humanities, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Bio
Syed Sajjad Hussain Rizvi
Department of Computer Science, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science & Technology
Bio
Fong-Woon Lai
Department of Management & Humanities, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Bio
Rao Faizan Ali
Department of Computer Science, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Bio
Ahmad Ali Jan
Department of Management & Humanities, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Bio

Published 2021-03-30

abstract views: 307 // FULL TEXT ARTICLE (PDF): 0


Keywords

  • Delinquency risk prediction,
  • Mortgage loan,
  • Machine learning techniques,
  • Artificial neural networks,
  • Multi-layer perceptron,
  • Binary logistics regression
  • ...More
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How to Cite

Azhar Ali, S. E., Rizvi, S. S. H., Lai, F.-W., Faizan Ali, R., & Ali Jan, A. (2021). Predicting Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: An Exhaustive Parametric Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques. International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 12(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.24867/IJIEM-2021-1-272

Abstract

This paper explores the potential of 19 machine learning techniques to model and forecasts the risk of delinquency on mortgage loans. These techniques include variants of artificial neural networks (ANN), ensemble classifiers, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, and decision trees. ensemble classifiers variants. Our dataset comprises 14,062 mortgage loans that have been approved by bank underwriters in the US. We find that Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), a variant of ANN, outperforms all other techniques in training time and the precision for testing and training. We have also compared Artificial Neural Network-Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) results with the traditional binary logistic regression technique's findings. The comparison shows that the ANN-MLP behaves better than the binary logistic regression technique. The study suggests that ANN-MLP could be a valuable extension towards developing the existing toolkit, banks and regulators have to predict delinquency risk on mortgage loans.

 

Article history: Received (October 12, 2020); Revised (December 23, 2020); Accepted (December 24, 2020); Published online (January 27, 2021)  

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